1. Background
The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest economies.
In June 2025, both countries agreed on a general trade framework, but no major decisions on tariff rollback or currency policy were finalized.
This has created global economic uncertainty once again.
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2. Global Economic Outlook
The World Bank has revised its 2025 global growth forecast:
From 2.7% to 2.3%
Reasons:
Ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions
Higher global energy prices
Slower investment and industrial activity
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3. Pakistan’s Economic Exposure
Pakistan’s economy is heavily dependent on exports, especially:
Textiles
Rice
Surgical instruments
China and the U.S. are among Pakistan’s top trading partners.
Trade disruptions can lead to:
Order cancellations or delays
Increased shipping costs
Currency depreciation (more pressure on the Pakistani Rupee)
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4. Indirect Effects
Slower global growth may lead to:
Reduced demand for Pakistani goods
Lower remittances from overseas workers
Higher inflation due to rupee weakening
Stock market instability may also hurt foreign investment into Pakistan.
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5. Expert Recommendations
Pakistan needs to:
Diversify its trade partners (e.g., Central Asia, Africa, Southeast Asia)
Focus on value-added exports
Improve trade diplomacy
Strengthen local industry to reduce import dependence
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6. Conclusion
The U.S.–China trade war is not just a bilateral issue—it affects the entire global supply chain.
Pakistan, being part of that chain, needs to act proactively, not reactively.
Policy p
lanning, export strategy, and diplomatic balance will be key to economic stability in 2025 and beyond.